An orange wave is breaking over Victoria. Can Labor hold back the populist tide?
One Nation is projected to win a significant number of seats in the upcoming Victorian state election, potentially challenging the traditional dominance of the Liberal, National and Labor parties. Labor’s internal leadership contest will determine who must confront this rising populist threat. Union leaders have expressed skepticism about the pollsters’ forecasts, but revised projections suggest a much larger surge for One Nation than initially expected.
- ▪Pollster Kos Samaras initially estimated One Nation could win about a dozen lower‑house seats in Victoria, a figure later deemed a gross underestimation.
- ▪Trades Hall Council’s updated projections now suggest One Nation could secure as many as thirty seats, comparable to the combined Liberal and National caucus.
- ▪The rise of One Nation follows strong performances in South Australia and a recent by‑election where the party reduced the Liberal‑National vote share.
- ▪Labor’s leadership race will produce the premier who must strategise against One Nation’s growing popularity in traditionally Labor‑held electorates.
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| Original publisher | The Sydney Morning Herald |
| Canonical URL | https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/an-orange-wave-is-breaking-over-victoria-can-labor-hold-back-the-populist-tide-20260612-p60694.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed |
| Publication time | Mon, 27 Jul 2026 12:04:20 +1000 |
| Retrieval time | 2026-07-27T02:08:42.462Z |
| Last seen | 2026-07-27T02:08:42.462Z |
| Headline source | Publisher (no WeSearch rewrite) |
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| Summary source text | contentText |
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| Cluster | ERlONkO3nAO8 |
| Cluster logic | Grouped by semantic title/content similarity across sources within a rolling window. Same-publisher template collisions are excluded from coverage comparison. |
| Ranking reason | Story pages are not engagement-ranked. Hub feeds use recency, with optional source-diversified chronological ordering (cap consecutive stories per source). No personalized ranking. |
| Publisher visit | Yes — open original |
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Opening excerpt (first ~120 words) tap to expand
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Excerpt limited to ~120 words for fair-use compliance. The full article is at The Sydney Morning Herald.