Russia’s economy is much worse than it seems, and ‘elites are increasingly alarmed’ as alternate GDP gauge shows huge contraction
Recent analysis from Sweden suggests that Russia's economy is in worse shape than officially reported, with a significant contraction rather than growth. The Swedish Foreign Minister warned that the Kremlin's claims of economic expansion are misleading, as inflation rates are also likely understated. As dissatisfaction among Russian elites grows, there are increasing concerns about the country's financial stability and military spending capacity.
- ▪Sweden's analysis indicates Russia's economy shrank by 8% from 2020 to 2024, contrary to Moscow's claims of 13% growth.
- ▪Official inflation figures in Russia are believed to be significantly lower than actual rates, with estimates suggesting inflation is closer to 15% rather than 5.2%.
- ▪Russian President Vladimir Putin has acknowledged a contraction in the economy, and there are warnings of an impending financial crisis from various Kremlin-affiliated sources.
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| Original publisher | Fortune |
| Canonical URL | https://fortune.com/2026/05/24/russian-economy-gdp-contraction-inflation-oil-prices-ukraine-war-elites-financial-crisis/ |
| Publication time | Sun, 24 May 2026 22:24:46 +0000 |
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Opening excerpt (first ~120 words) tap to expand
The Swedish government has come up with some drastically different economic figures on Russia that make the Kremlin’s official data seem like a Potemkin village.Recommended Video In a New York Times op-ed on Wednesday, Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard cautioned the West against overestimating Russia and said the economy is more fragile than it appears. While Russia has claimed GDP expanded by about 13% between 2020 and 2024, Sweden’s analysis of nighttime luminosity suggests the economy actually shrank by 8% during that span. Moscow has also lowballed inflation substantially, according to Stenergard, who pointed out that Russia’s official inflation figure in 2024 was 10% while the central bank hiked interest rates to 21% that year.
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