Strait of Hormuz traffic may not return to normal for 12 months or more, according to prediction markets
The Strait of Hormuz maritime traffic may not return to normal for 12 months or more, according to prediction markets. Market odds for the strait's traffic flow to return to normal by July 2027 have dropped to 47% from nearly 70% in the past two days. The decrease in odds comes after the US launched strikes against Iranian targets and President Trump signaled a potential further attack.
- ▪The chances of the strait's traffic flow returning to normal by July 2027 have plummeted to 47%.
- ▪Odds of ship traffic resuming normally this year stand at 38%.
- ▪The current seven-day moving average of transit calls is about 12, far below the threshold for normal traffic.
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| Canonical URL | https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/24/odds-that-the-straits-traffic-returns-to-normal-drop-on-kalshi.html |
| Publication time | Fri, 24 Jul 2026 19:55:04 GMT |
| Retrieval time | 2026-07-24T19:56:49.540Z |
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Opening excerpt (first ~120 words) tap to expand
Market odds on Kalshi for when the Strait of Hormuz maritime traffic will return to normal are below 50% as of Friday afternoon.Chances that the strait's traffic flow is normal by July 2027 plummeted to 47% from nearly 70% in the past two days. The drop came after the U.S. launched a 13th consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets, with President Trump signaling a further "massive attack" against Iran in an interview with Axios on Thursday.Odds of ship traffic resuming normally this year stand at 38%, while odds are only somewhat better, at 48%, that regular shipments will be reached before April 2027. Kalshi's event contract would resolve if the seven-day moving average of transit calls is above 60 in data verified by IMF Portwatch.
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