The optimal Bayesian update?
The optimal Bayesian update? by Tyler Cowen July 24, 2026 at 2:52 am in Current Affairs Web/Tech I see at least three updates one might make from the recent OAI/Hugging Face hacking incident: 1. “This happened sooner than I expected, and the story is more dramatic than I expected,” therefore I am more worried than before. “This happened, and the inferior Chinese cyber-defense seems to have performed just fine,” therefore I am less worried than before.
- ▪The optimal Bayesian update? by Tyler Cowen July 24, 2026 at 2:52 am in Current Affairs Web/Tech I see at least three updates one might make from the recent OAI/Hugging Face hacking incident: 1.
- ▪“This happened sooner than I expected, and the story is more dramatic than I expected,” therefore I am more worried than before.
- ▪“This happened, and the inferior Chinese cyber-defense seems to have performed just fine,” therefore I am less worried than before.
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| Original publisher | Marginal Revolution |
| Canonical URL | https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/the-optimal-bayesian-update.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-optimal-bayesian-update |
| Publication time | Fri, 24 Jul 2026 06:52:36 +0000 |
| Retrieval time | 2026-07-24T07:00:58.860Z |
| Last seen | 2026-07-24T07:00:58.860Z |
| Headline source | Publisher (no WeSearch rewrite) |
| Excerpt source | publisher body |
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| Summary | WeSearch · cerebras-chat (WeSearch summarizer) |
| Summary source text | contentText |
| Citation coverage | Summary is a WeSearch-generated derivative; primary citation is the original publisher URL. |
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| Cluster logic | Not yet clustered, or no peer story found in the clustering window. |
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| Snippet | May a short excerpt of the publisher's text be shown? | Allowed |
| AI summary | May WeSearch generate its own short summary of the article? | Limited |
| Retrieval / RAG | May the content be exposed for third-party retrieval-augmented generation? | Not asserted |
| Model training | May the content be used to train AI models? | Not asserted |
| Commercial reuse | May the content be reused commercially? | Not permitted |
Basis: Derived from the published RSS/Atom feed. Contact: [email protected]. Reviewed: 2026-07-24.
Opening excerpt (first ~120 words) tap to expand
The optimal Bayesian update? by Tyler Cowen July 24, 2026 at 2:52 am in Current Affairs Web/Tech I see at least three updates one might make from the recent OAI/Hugging Face hacking incident: 1. “This happened sooner than I expected, and the story is more dramatic than I expected,” therefore I am more worried than before. 2. “This happened, and the inferior Chinese cyber-defense seems to have performed just fine,” therefore I am less worried than before. 3. “This happened, and as far as we can tell, absolutely no one was harmed,” therefore I am less worried than before. Obviously the net impact, from those bare hypotheses, is indeterminate. And yet few people seem to be paying much heed to #2 or #3. Joshua Saxe from the cyber world has some relevant observations.
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Excerpt limited to ~120 words for fair-use compliance. The full article is at Marginal Revolution.
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