The Strongest El Niño Ever

Zeke Hausfather· Jul 26, 2026 · 6:35 PM UTC ·7 min read · 0 reactions · 0 comments · 18 views

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▪The Strongest El Niño EverWith all the July runs in, dynamical models give a ~90% chance of a record-setting eventZeke HausfatherJul 13, 202631885114ShareI’m generally pretty measured in how I discuss climate data.
▪There has been only one time in recent years when I was truly shocked: when global temperatures came in for September 2023 at a full 0.5C warmer than any prior September on record.1 Once until today, that is.
▪For context, the gap between the strongest and the fifth strongest El Niño of the past 150 years is only about 0.5C.

How this story was covered

2 outlets in our directory ran this story, first to last over 26 hours. All of the coverage we found sits in one bucket: lean left. That one-sidedness is itself worth noticing.

Lean left · 1

▪ This El Niño Is on Track to Become the Strongest on Record by a ‘Mind-Blowing Margin’ — Gizmodo

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Theclimatebrink · Zeke Hausfather

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Original publisher	Theclimatebrink
Canonical URL	https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-strongest-el-nino-ever
Publication time	Sun, 26 Jul 2026 18:35:36 +0000
Retrieval time	2026-07-26T18:48:19.261Z
Last seen	2026-07-26T18:48:19.261Z
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Opening excerpt (first ~120 words) tap to expand

The Strongest El Niño EverWith all the July runs in, dynamical models give a ~90% chance of a record-setting eventZeke HausfatherJul 13, 202631885114ShareI’m generally pretty measured in how I discuss climate data. There has been only one time in recent years when I was truly shocked: when global temperatures came in for September 2023 at a full 0.5C warmer than any prior September on record.1 Once until today, that is. With the July runs now in from 667 ensemble members across 14 different seasonal forecast models, it looks like this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began – it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin.SubscribeThe multi-model median for the event’s peak (measured as detrended sea surface temperature…

Excerpt limited to ~120 words for fair-use compliance. The full article is at Theclimatebrink.

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