Why dropping the worst-case climate scenario does not undermine the reality of global warming

May 23, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC ·1 min read · 0 reactions · 0 comments · 30 views

TL;DR · WeSearch summary

A leading scientific committee has set aside the RCP8.5 climate trajectory, which predicted a nearly 5°C increase in global temperatures by 2100. This decision has been politically interpreted by figures like Donald Trump, who claimed it as evidence against climate science. However, the study that prompted this change was intended to explore various greenhouse gas emission pathways rather than predict outcomes.

Key facts

▪The RCP8.5 climate trajectory was associated with a worst-case climate scenario.
▪Donald Trump publicly celebrated the committee's decision, labeling previous climate projections as incorrect.
▪The study in question aimed to explore potential climate futures through new emission pathways.

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Le Monde (EN) publishes from France and files mainly under world. We currently carry 420 of its stories.

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Original publisher	Le Monde (EN)
Canonical URL	https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2026/05/24/why-dropping-the-worst-case-climate-scenario-does-not-undermine-the-reality-of-global-warming_6753768_114.html
Publication time	Sun, 24 May 2026 01:30:50 +0200
Retrieval time	2026-05-23T23:37:28.607Z
Last seen	2026-05-23T23:37:28.607Z
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Opening excerpt (first ~120 words) tap to expand

Steam escapes from a coal-fired power plant operated by global energy supplier Uniper, next to a wind turbine in Gelsenkirchen, western Germany, October 2, 2019. INA FASSBENDER/AFP For years, it stood for the worst-case climate outcome: The so-called RCP8.5 climate trajectory, cited in thousands of scientific studies, imagined a world nearly 5°C warmer by 2100, fueled by a surge in coal consumption. This extreme scenario was recently set aside by a leading scientific committee whose work is expected to inform future reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). But what was meant as a technical update was then seized upon for political purposes by Donald Trump. "GOOD RIDDANCE!" declared the American president on his Truth Social network on May 16.

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Excerpt limited to ~120 words for fair-use compliance. The full article is at Le Monde (EN).

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